What is  the new shape of geopolitics—one in which the U.S. mobilizes its economic and financial pre-eminence for geopolitical objectives, especially in its clashes with China, Iran and Russia. It’s the story of a world economy that has moved from confident globalization to increasing fragmentation and in which economic warfare has become “a baseline feature of our world.”

Of course, there’s nothing new about economic warfare. Athens in the fifth century B.C. deployed its mighty navy to impose a trade embargo on the city-state of Megara. The blockade succeeded but also backfired, helping precipitate a war with Sparta that would shatter Athens’s golden age.

Today we see Mr. Trump’s penchant for tariffs, marking a reversion from the long trend toward trade liberalization that began with the revulsion against the trade wars of the 1930s. The second Trump administration is not hesitating to impose and brandish tariffs against both allies and adversaries, whether to offset trade deficits or to achieve other policy goals. At the same time, Moscow is already making clear in negotiations over its war against Ukraine that the removal of all sanctions is a primary objective.

If you are looking for a timely guide to the fragmenting of the global economy and the rising tensions that go with it, this SDG is for you!

‍